In addition, the Philippine Draft Energy Plan (PEP) provides for a much higher use of solar energy compared to the National Renewable Energy Program. A number of reforms are underway to create a more competitive electricity market that favours renewable energy. The introduction of new rules for the renewable energy market, under which renewable energy auctions will take place, and an exclusion clause allowing utilities to restrict coal-fired electricity generation will improve national conditions of competition. The Philippines is one of the latest countries to be a party to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to present its first NDCs. At the time of writing, 192 of the 196 parties had shown up. In the meantime, eight countries have already submitted their second NDCs. The moratorium on new coal could reduce emissions by 32-35% in 2030 compared to our current policy projections. The Philippines is the first of the coal-dominated Southeast Asian countries to implement such a moratorium. This measure could reduce the Philippines` emissions curve and bring the country closer to its NDC target. There is a lot of uncertainty, as the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic or recovery measures on economic development is still unclear. However, the economic downturn of 2020 will affect emissions for many years to come.
Current CAT policy projections show that emissions in 2030 will be 2-7% lower than our previous estimate in December 2019. This alone could reduce emissions by around 60 MtCO2e in 2030 compared to our current policy scenario – a reduction of 32% to 35%. These emission reductions have been quantified using independent projections that do not necessarily reflect the government`s plans to use renewable sources, but reflect the maximum impact of the policy – including the possibility of political spillover effects (Ahmed and Brown, 2020). Meralco, the Philippines` largest electricity supplier, included an exclusion clause in its power purchase agreements in 2020 (Ahmed & Dalusung, 2020). This clause allows a reduction in coal-fired energy with lower demand caused by the pandemic. Together, these developments can support the shift away from coal-fired power generation, although large retailers can still pass on the higher generation costs to end users (Department of Energy, 2018). However, recent developments in the energy sector remain contradictory. The EPP project does not include the moratorium on new coal-fired power plants announced in October and aims to introduce inflexible nuclear power into the electricity grid. These developments are not in line with President Duterte`s July 2019 speech, in which he explained the need “to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on traditional energy sources such as coal.” The revision of the EPP, which covers the next two decades, is an important moment to show a path compatible with the Paris Agreement for the energy sector. Recent plans to expand the role of gas in the system, which build terminals for the import of natural gas, do not contribute to the country`s energy independence and would guarantee the large infrastructure for fossil fuels. This would become an obstacle to the transition to zero-emission electricity generation (Ahmed, 2020a).
They also stated that much of the reduction target that depends on aid “means the intention to use the NDC as a tool for negotiating the means of implementation necessary for the implementation of the measures and policies in the PAMS list (policies and measures), including access to available forms of financing such as the Green Climate Fund”, reported the groups. However, many outstanding questions about the moratorium still need to be clarified. The projects that would fall under the moratorium have not yet been defined. In addition, the Philippines needs to adapt the PEP to its recent announcements. Adding the moratorium to policy documents such as pep and NDC would demonstrate the country`s commitment to advancing “the transition from fossil fuel use to cleaner energy sources.” Part of the TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion) law, implemented in 2018, includes the increase in taxes on coal production, which are expected to increase year on year (from 10 pesos in 2017 to 150 from January 2020). The coal tax helps to improve the conditions of competition for electricity generation by increasing the costs of coal production, which is a positive signal, but still too weak to push for the abandonment of coal, let alone a phase-out. Another joint statement by Green groups welcomed the overall higher reduction target, but called for more transparency on how the government arrived at the conditional and unconditional figures. When the Philippines ratified the Paris Agreement, the government set a country-set timeline for the submission of the first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) before 2020. In accordance with the mandates of the Climate Change Act as amended and the General Appropriation Act, the Climate Change Commission leads and coordinates the process of developing and completing the Philippine NDC. The instrument of accession signed by the President was accompanied by a declaration by states that “the accession of the Republic of the Philippines and the implementation of the Paris Agreement are intended to support the country`s national development objectives and priorities”, including: Prior to this final NDC, the Climate Commission had proposed an even smaller target for the unconditional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions – 2%. You already presented it to environmental and climate justice groups in February.
Announcements of additional support for coal-fired electricity generation and increasing the capacity of coal-fired power plants by 2040 add to this uncertainty. The expansion of coal generation capacity will continue. In 2015, about 12 GW of coal-fired power plant capacity was under construction or pipeline in the Philippines. Since then, they have built about 2.8 GW and today there are still about 9.4 GW in the pipeline and 3.0 GW under construction. This expansion has raised concerns about the potential creation of billions of dollars in failed coal-fired power plants. The United Nations had previously called on countries to submit their climate commitments by the end of 2020. The Philippines previously intended to submit a submission through the Climate Change Commission on 31 December 2020. When she did not, she wanted to file an application in February, but she failed again. – Rappler.com The Philippine Commission on Climate Change is in the process of revising its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which we consider “compatible with 2°C” because it is a conditional target. There is no clarity on the Philippines` unconditional commitment or the amount of funding that would be required to reach the conditional portion of its NDC. The baseline on which it bases its CDN is also unclear.
Converting a significant portion of the target into an unconditional commitment could improve the Philippines` rating to “1.5°C consistent with the Paris Agreement.” The Philippines could provide a strengthened NDC by mid-2019, perhaps sooner: no commitment has been made, but it could achieve a 1.5°C compliant rating if it manages to provide an ambitious and unconditional NDC while facing significant internal challenges. The Power For People coalition, whose members include anti-coal groups, has called on the Department of Energy (DOE) to reduce emissions from the energy sector more aggressively. The Philippines promises to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 75% from 2020 to 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario of the same period. According to our analysis and like most countries, the Philippines needs to take additional steps to achieve its conditional NDC. Full implementation of the “National Renewable Energy Programme” and the “Roadmap for Energy Efficiency and Conservation” would reduce emissions by 11% compared to current policy projections. However, it is unlikely that the NDC target will be achieved if the entire announced capacity of the coal-fired power plant (more than 10 GW) is built. .
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